Credit Investments
Key Takeaways
- Credit investments offer lower risk and more predictable returns than equities
- Government bonds provide the safest credit exposure with lowest yields
- Corporate bonds offer higher yields but come with default risk
- Credit ratings help assess default probability and required risk premiums
- Structured credit and private credit provide additional diversification opportunities
Besides investing in equity, which means being an "owner" of the company, investors may also lend money to the company by buying a corporate bond. In credit investment, sometimes referred to as "debt investing", an investor lends money to the borrower, and benefits from earning interest on the loan over time.
As bonds are tradable, an investor may also gain profit by selling the corporate bond at a higher price, if the bond's yield to maturity declines over the holding period. In general, credit investments are considered to come at a lower risk than equity investments, but also come at a lower return. However, significant loss can occur in the case of default, where the investor can lose a large portion if not the whole investment.
Credit vs. Equity Risk-Return Comparison
Credit Investments
Equity Investments
Investment Categories
Credit investors can choose from multiple alternatives:
- Government bonds (sovereign debt)
- Corporate bonds (investment grade & high yield)
- Structured credit (MBS, ABS, CLOs)
- Private credit (direct lending)
Government Bonds
Government bonds, also known as sovereign debt, are debt securities issued by governments and are considered to be the safest category from the credit (default) risk point of view. While we have seen some sovereign debt defaults over history (Argentina in 2001 and several times since then, Russia in 1998, etc.), government bonds issued by developed country governments are typically very safe.
In the United States, government bonds are issued by the US Treasury and are typically categorized as:
T-Bills
Short-term securities with the highest liquidity and lowest interest rate risk.
T-Notes
Medium-term securities offering higher yields than bills with moderate duration risk.
T-Bonds
Long-term securities with highest yields but greatest interest rate sensitivity.
The yield-to-maturity (YTM) of these bonds represents the internal rate of return (IRR) that makes the present value of the cash flows equal to the market price. Short-term interest rates are determined by central banks' monetary policy (Federal Reserve in the US), while long-term rates fluctuate based on policy expectations, inflation outlook, and term premiums.
Corporate Bonds
Corporate bonds have a higher risk of default than government bonds, so investors require a higher yield and higher return from them. The extra yield on a corporate bond compared to a similar maturity government bond is called the credit spread. This spread compensates bond investors for taking higher credit risk.
There are two broad categories of corporate bonds from the credit risk perspective:
Investment Grade Bonds
High-quality bonds with strong credit profiles and predictable cash flows.
High-Yield Bonds
Speculative-grade bonds offering higher yields to compensate for increased default risk.
Corporate bonds are usually rated by one or more of the three primary ratings agencies: Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch. These ratings range from AAA down to D, providing investors with standardized risk assessments.
Historical Default Rate Analysis
Default rates vary significantly between investment grade and high-yield bonds:
This significant difference in default rates justifies the higher yields demanded by high-yield bond investors.
Due to the volatile nature and higher default probability of non-investment grade corporate bonds, they offer higher returns as compensation for increased risk. Credit spreads fluctuate based on economic conditions, market sentiment, and company-specific factors.
Structured Credit
Structured credit investments typically refer to securitized bonds—bonds backed or "collateralized" by a pool of many individual loans such as mortgage loans, credit card loans, or auto loans. These investments encompass three main categories:
Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
Securities backed by pools of home loans and real estate debt. Agency MBS are guaranteed by government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Asset-Backed Securities (ABS)
Securities collateralized by various consumer loans including credit card receivables, auto loans, and student loans.
Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs)
Securities backed by pools of leveraged loans, typically to below-investment-grade companies.
Agency MBS Characteristics
- Government Backing: Full faith and credit of the U.S. government post-2008
- Prepayment Risk: Borrowers can refinance at lower rates, reducing investor returns
- Yield Premium: Higher yields than Treasuries to compensate for prepayment option
- Interest Rate Sensitivity: Negative convexity in declining rate environments
20-Year Bond Performance Analysis
Private Credit
The non-public segment of credit investing has experienced significant growth following the 2008 financial crisis. Increased bank regulations and capital requirements caused traditional lenders to retreat from small and middle-market company lending, creating opportunities for direct lending or private credit.
Market Opportunity
Small and middle-market companies lack access to public bond markets, creating substantial direct lending opportunities.
Retail Access
Business Development Company (BDC) funds provide retail investors access to private credit markets through publicly traded structures.
Private Credit Investment Considerations
- Illiquidity Premium: Higher yields compensate for reduced liquidity
- Direct Relationships: Closer monitoring and covenant protection
- Floating Rate: Many loans have variable rates, providing inflation protection
- Diversification: Access to non-public credit markets unavailable in traditional bonds
Professional Risk Analysis
Analyze credit investments and fixed income portfolios using our comprehensive Portfolio Optimizer, or manage portfolio risk using our Risk Radar.
Access Portfolio OptimizerAccess Risk RadarCredit investments provide essential diversification benefits and income generation opportunities within a well-balanced portfolio. Understanding the risk-return characteristics of different credit categories—from safe government bonds to higher-yielding private credit—enables investors to construct portfolios that match their risk tolerance and return objectives while providing steady income streams.